Second round will be decider

KATHMANDU, Feb 3: Don´t count on the first round of voting in parliament on Thursday giving the country a new prime minister. But you will not have to wait till the third round to know the outcome -- the second round will be the decider.

The most likely scenario during the first round of voting is this: None of the four candidates will withdraw their candidacies and neither of them will get 299 votes to become prime minister.

The only scenario in which the country will get a prime minister on Thursday is if MPRF-D Chairman Bijaya Gachchhadar withdraws his candidacy and opts to vote for Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal along with other major Madhesi parties.


Though Dahal and Gachchhadar met today they failed to strike a deal. Dahal is likely to make a last ditch effort tomorrow. Upendra Yadav, Chairman of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum, is in favor of voting for Dahal but not everyone in his party shares his sentiments.

If the first round fails to elect the prime minister, as is likely, the second round will be the decider.

There are two likely scenarios in the second round: First, the Madhesi parties can still vote for Maoist Chairman Dahal.

Madhesi leaders, however, rule out that possibility. “There is no possibility of us voting for Dahal in the second round,” said Jitendra Sonal, general secretary of Tarai Madhes Democratic Party, who seconded Gachchhadar’s candidacy. Are the Madhesi leaders just bluffing to help their bargaining position? Hard to say.

If Maoist Chairman Dahal is not sure of securing a majority vote in the second round, the Maoist party will most probably opt to vote for UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal.

Maoist leader Barshaman Pun, Dahal´s confidante, said his party would support Khanal in the second round if it sees no chance of Dahal being elected.

“We will try to get our candidate elected. If we cannot, we will vote for Khanal,” said Pun.

Maoist Senior Vice-chairman Mohan Baidya is also in favor of voting for Khanal if Dahal fails to garner enough support in the second round.

Asked whether his party would support Khanal if Dahal is not elected, he said, “All the possibilities will be open.”

Dr Baburam Bhattarai´s faction is against supporting Khanal. “Dahal should not leave the field even if he does not win. If they [CPN-UML] do not vote for our candidate, why should our party support them?” questioned Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, a Moist leader close to Bhattarai, when asked whether his party would support Khanal in the second round.

Meanwhile, lawmakers close to Dr Bhattarai, including Hemraj Bhandari, Devi Khadka and Prabhu Sah, asked Dahal not to be a dummy candidate and stood against voting for Khanal. Replying to their concerns, Dahal said the party has not taken any such decision.

But the Bhattarai faction´s concern is unlikely to influence Dahal´s decision.

Just in case the second round also fails to elect a prime minister, no prizes for guessing the result in the third round: The third round will elect Ram Chandra Paudel.

If the Maoists don´t support Khanal in the second round, the latter will feel betrayed by Dahal and will almost certainly be in favor of supporting Paudel in the third round. Moreover, there is a standing decision by the UML that the party will not accept a government under Maoist leadership.

And if the Madhesi parties don´t vote for the Maoist chairman in the first and second rounds, it´s unlikely they will vote for him in the third round.

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