PM race wide open

KATHMANDU, Feb 1: As consensus efforts have failed to no one´s surprise the race for the prime minister´s post has become wide open with each party vying to form a government under its own leadership.

There are different possible coalition scenarios, none of which, however, looks certain at this point. The Madhesi parties and Maoists have been busy in hectic, behind the scenes negotiations for the last couple of days but there are conflicting reports about the outcome of such talks.

Similarly, UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal´s efforts to form a government led by Khanal have also gained momentum as Plan B for the Maoist party.

Meanwhile, the NC is hoping that neither of these two coalitions will materialize in the end, leading to the continuation of the current ruling coalition but under NC leadership.

Is alliance of Maoists-Madhes parties possible?

Jitendra Sonal, joint general-secretary of the Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), said there is no alternative to a coalition between the Maoists and Madhes-based parties.

“NC and the UML should concentrate on concluding the peace process and writing the constitution. ´The forces of change´ such as the Maoists and Madhes-based parties should lead the new government,” Sonal said.

Likewise, Ram Janam Chaudhary, MPRF (Democratic) leader, also batted for a Maoist-Madhesi parties alliance and said the Madhes-based parties will either support a government led by the Maoists or solicit their support for leading the government.

“But being the single largest party the Maoists will get first priority in leading a new government,” he said.
Madhes-based parties are likely to back the Maoists if they demonstrate a time-bound commitment to three agenda items – peace, constitution and Madhes issues, and under the condition that the support will be withdrawn if the Maoists fail to implement the three commitments within three months.

TMDP-Nepal coordinator Mahendra Prasad Yadav, however, said there is a smaller chance of Madhes-based parties going for a Maoist-led government as the “environment of trust” has not improved so far.

He further said the Madhesi parties will abide by the decision taken by the Samyukta Madhesi Morcha. Most leaders from Madhes-based parties claim that the proposal to form a Maoist-Madhes parties alliance has been discussed among top leaders of the Morcha and there are positive signs.

Co-chairman of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF), Jaya Prakash Gupta, however, said there was no longer any chance of an alliance between Madhesi parties and the Maoists.

“Maoists are reluctant to form an alliance with Madhesi parties as they do not consider us faithful friends,” said Gupta, co-chairman of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF). He also said the Maoists have rejected the idea of a government led by a Madhesi party and supported by the Maoists.

Govt led by Khanal with Maoist support?

Immediately after the three-party meeting ended inconclusively Monday, Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal at the Maoist parliamentary party office in Singha Durbar.

The content of the talks between the two leaders is not yet known but it has given weight to a theory that a Khanal-led government with Maoist support is likely if the Maoists don´t get to lead the government themselves.

Sources say Dahal is likely to support Khanal and will try to rule by proxy.

But will party hard-liners support Dahal’s bid to back Khanal as prime minister – that too at a time when the party is supposed to be making preparations for a revolt?

“Yes, in fact, they will demand a lion’s share and the plum ministries because some prominent hardliners also believe that launching a revolt to capture state power is not only an improbable venture but a risky one as well,” says a leader close to Dahal.

Though party Vice-chairman Dr Baburam Bhattarai is against joining the government under Khanal’s leadership, Dahal is likely to get his decision endorsed in the party through a majority vote supported by the Baidya group.

Will UML central committee nominate Khanal as PM´s candidate?

The CPN-UML is holding its Central Committee (CC) meeting on Tuesday to decide the party´s stance on government formation even as the third-largest party in parliament is deeply divided on whether the party should claim leadership in the new government or not.

The CC meeting, which is taking place just a day before the scheduled date for filing prime ministerial candidacy at the parliament secretariat, is likely to see heated debate for and against fielding party chairman Jhalanath Khanal´s candidacy.

While the party establishment is vigorously lobbying for Khanal´s candidacy, the other faction led by Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and K P Sharma Oli is against it.

The Nepal-Oli camp is dead against Khanal-led government with support from the UCPN (Maoist) and has been insisting that the existing alliance between Nepali Congress (NC) and UML must be kept intact.

According to leaders, some CC members will argue that Khanal has no moral ground to claim leadership to head a majority government as he has been ´championing´ consensus government.

"How can our chairman, who had claimed that forming consensus government was possible within hours after Prime Minister Nepal steps down, can file candidacy for a majority-based government?" questioned a CC member, adding, "So the CC meeting can´t endorse his candidacy to head a simple majority government."

UML leaders, mainly from the Nepal-Oli faction, fear that once Khanal is made candidate for prime minister it might be impossible to stop him from being elected to the post with the support of the Maoists.

Sensing that the Maoists may at the last minute withdraw Dahal´s candidacy and decide to vote for Khanal, Nepal-Oli camp is trying to block Khanal from filing candidacy.

But some lawmakers even from the Nepal-Oli camp argue that it will be impossible to block party chairman´s candidacy.

"It´s likely that the Khanal camp may argue that party´s candidacy is a must to explore possibility of a consensus government under UML leadership," said a lawmaker close to Nepal-Oli faction, adding, "It will be difficult to make a case against that argument."

Continuation of the ´so called´ democratic alliance?

The current coalition might continue but under the leadership of NC leader Ram Chandra Paudel if the attempt to forge a Maoist-Madhesi or UML-Maoist alliance fails. In terms of possibility, the democratic alliance seems the least likely.

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