Earthquakes along the political faultlines

MOHAN DAS MANANDHAR
The Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011 sent tremors far beyond its own shores. The massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake and the tsunami it triggered has left a death toll of over 10,000 and counting, an additional 18,000 unaccounted for, nearly 250,000 homeless and estimated damage worth $300 billion. The full damage can only be assessed once rescue efforts stop and rebuilding efforts begin. The earthquake has been a reminder for the rest of the world of just how vulnerable we are to natural calamities, especially in countries like Nepal which lie in seismically susceptible areas, fears and speculations have grown. Almost every other person is preparing an emergency kit in case of an earthquake, deliberating the structural soundness of their homes and googling earthquake safety measures.

However, what must be understood is that individual preparedness will be far from enough in case of a major earthquake (of more than 7 Richter scale) hits Nepal. In case of other natural calamities individual preparedness can be effective for example; flood areas can be avoided during monsoons, land travel into areas susceptible to landslides eschewed and food hoarded in preparation for droughts and famines. But, in case of major earthquakes, a state level effort alone can and will be able to control and carry out effective rescue and relief operations. You might be in your ´structurally unsound´ office building, your children might be in a school, the water, electricity and telecommunication system may collapse. Hence, an individual’s isolated efforts and awareness alone will not suffice.

Radio programs, newspapers, television interviews and even dinner conversations in the past week or two have each expressed their own largely similar views – disaster preparedness, adhering to building codes, raising awareness, and long term development plans. Although floods and fire are the most frequently occurring natural disasters in Nepal and major earthquakes the least, the latter is the most devastating. In case of one, relief measures will have to be mobilized, aid - both local and foreign-managed and information collected and disseminated. The increasingly frequent discourse has covered all this and more; our shockingly understaffed and under-equipped fire fighting department, and the need for a National Commission for Disaster Risk Management which is all very relevant and apt. However, in all these efforts there is an underlying assumption that the state will direct, coordinate and manage everything in case of an earthquake. This assumption will be rendered inconsequential if a major earthquake hits the capital Kathmandu.

Any earthquake that registers above 7 on the Richter scale is going to have devastating physical effects on life and property but, more than that and most crucially, an earthquake at the heart of the country – Kathmandu will compound these problems and even have adverse political consequences. Such a major earthquake will immobilize to an almost absolute extent, the state mechanism itself, which otherwise will have to lead rescue and relief efforts in the aftermath.

Most of our ministries are housed in old structurally unsound buildings in Kathmandu. A major earthquake would severely damage offices of ministries like Home and Defense which are supposed to be the focal point of all disaster management efforts, thus leaving them immobilized.

Communication networks, be it internet or telephones, will, in turn, suffer as network centers based almost exclusively in Kathmandu also run the risk of incurring severe damage. The sole airport in the capital, if rendered useless by the quake will lead to a virtual lockdown of the city and will cut off all foreign aid from reaching the affected area quickly. Rescue efforts will not just grind to a halt but have difficulty in even commencing and rebuilding tasks will be of mammoth proportions as the coordinating bodies like the Home Ministry will not be able to act.

This exacerbation of loss of life and property in the capital will have serious political ramifications. The physical breakdown of state structures in the capital, and the consequential paralyses of government, will lead to political instability not just in the capital but across the country. With the state´s attention and capacities not only centered on the affected capital but handicapped to a large extent, there is a high risk of chaos erupting in regions outside and away from the capital. A Kathmandu centered earthquake may very well create deep political fault lines across the country. Cut off from the direct control and monitoring of the capital, regions may slowly pull away from the central authority. Failure of the capital to rebuild itself physically and re-establish control will send the country hurtling towards becoming a failed state.

Disasters are bound to create some level of panic. In a country like Japan where earthquakes, big or small are the norm, panic levels do not tend to be high. In the past weeks we observed multiple scenes on the news of famished albeit calm and organized lines of Japanese waiting for the relief food. Should a quake strike Kathmandu, our situation unfortunately will resemble that of Haiti more than Japan in this context – riots, looting and anarchy would all be very probable. With police, army and government bodies all headquartered in Kathmandu, chaos control will pose a serious problem.

Outside of Kathmandu, confusion and chaos will prevail and the nation will be like a ship operating not just without its captain but without its first crew. With the capital´s efforts concentrated in the capital, other regions will look to the areas closest to them for relief; the Tarai belt to India and the mountain areas to China. In the absence of national supervision the country will be in the hands of international rescue teams and efforts, all of which will be sorely needed but each with its political implications, nonetheless. In the case of a trapped and dysfunctional center that is unable to coordinate foreign aid, foreign troops´ movement and activities no matter how innocent or noble, will go virtually unchecked on Nepali soil.

Let me clarify that the point of these forecasts which paint a very dark future for Nepal is not to create unnecessary panic. It has been geologically established that Nepal is highly susceptible to earthquakes as it lies in a region of high seismic activity. A major earthquake may occur here in Kathmandu, in the next ten days or in the next decade. The intelligent thing to do is to prepare – on all fronts as only a fool believes he is invincible. Infrastructural weaknesses, lack of awareness, lack of capacity for disaster management have been repeatedly pointed out as major issues of concerns over time. Highlighting the problems will hopefully lead to the process of addressing them. In this regard, we must not overlook one possibility of political vacuum and subsequent chaos that will make all other disaster management plans ineffectual.

Disaster preparedness and management should be developed keeping in mind the above possibilities and drawing up mechanisms to counter or mitigate the effects. An international flight capacity airport must be developed close to the capital. Rescue training and hospital capacities need to be built not just in the capital, but also outside of it. Each institute or ministry must have parallel mechanisms with equal disaster management capabilities across the country.

If and when the quake strikes, we must be as prepared as we can be on as many fronts as we can. If we ignore the political implications and do not build mechanisms to address them from now onwards then Nepal will be in trouble even long after the rescue works finish and the cities and towns have been physically rebuild.

Writer is the Executive Director of Niti Foundation

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