Nepal sits pretty on a seismically active zone and experts believe that a tremor, which is a cyclic phenomenon, is long overdue in Nepal. Although tremors could not be predicted, the preparedness and rapid response are all the more essential to ward off greater loss of life and property in case a tremor of high magnitude hits the nation. Amid the looming danger of earthquake, Narayan Upadhyay of The Rising Nepal spoke about different dimensions of this kind of disaster with respect to Nepal’s problems, preparedness, and its ability to tackle challenges emanating from the disaster, with Surya Narayan Shrestha, Deputy Executive Director of National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (N-SET). An excerpt:
1. Can an earthquake be predicted? Why are there so many hue and cries about earthquakes hitting our nation or Kathmandu any time soon? Is the doom-saying well placed?
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Scientific researches so far have not been able to predict earthquakes. However, by studying geology and historical earthquakes in a particular location, it can be identified that certain area is prone to earthquakes.
Nepal is prone to earthquakes. Nepal sits astride the boundary between Indian and Tibetan tectonic plates; due to internal geological processes, such boundary area is seismically very active. Large amount of strain is accumulated every year in this convergence zone and when such strain exceeds the capacity of rock masses, it is released through the active faults in the form of earthquakes. A mapping, done during the national building code development project in 1992-1994 identified 92 such active faults throughout the country which are potential sources of earthquakes.
Historically also, Nepal has suffered number of large magnitude earthquakes. In the past nine centuries, seven major earthquakes hit Kathmandu Valley and surrounding areas. On average an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above has occurred once every 70-100 years. The last major earthquake that hit Nepal was in 1934 (popularly known "Nabbe salko mahabhukamta") during which 8,519 were killed throughout the country and 4,296 in Kathmandu Valley. Since then, a significant amount of stress has accumulated and a major earthquake is around the corner. Scientists even say that a big one is already overdue.
2. What are the things that must be followed to tackle the challenges of earthquakes and to save the loss of life and property?
There is a common saying that "Earthquakes do not kill people but the unsafe buildings do!" Main cause of human casualty during earthquakes is the damage and destruction of houses that people live in. If you go through cases of big earthquakes hitting developing countries like us, almost 80 percent of loss of life is found to be due to building collapses. Therefore, our main focus should be on constructing safe buildings. That can help reduce probable losses of life and property.
We can tackle this challenge with three-pronged approach: a) Stop increasing risk, b) Reduce the existing risk, and c) Be prepared for the possible consequences. We should not add up more risks in our new construction i.e. buildings to be built in earthquake-resistant manner. We should assess & identify the prevailing risks and adopt ways to reduce that. Ideas of non structural mitigation works and also technical interventions like retrofitting the existing structures which can improve earthquake safety of buildings can ensure better safety. Third area of work is to enhance preparedness at various levels, from individual to community to state level. We should have enough knowledge and skills on what we should do before, during and after earthquake.
3. Where is Nepal in terms of tackling the challenges of natural disasters like earthquakes?
During later years, there have been significant efforts from state and non-state stakeholders in promoting earthquake safety in Nepal. But such efforts seem to be very little as compared to the extent of problem that we face. We have been able to make a few number of schools earthquake safe, a few number of hospitals safe and a few number of communities prepared for the consequences. Comparatively very small number of Nepali communities have been reached for raising their awareness and helping them build capacity. Only few municipalities have been able to implement building codes. Several trainings and knowledge sharing efforts to policy makers, engineers, sub-engineers, masons, house-owners and community people have been conducted but still not enough. It is thus I would say we are on right track but a lot of works are still lying ahead.
4. What are the problems that are obstructing the nation in bringing out concrete plans to mitigate the effects of earthquake?
Let me first endorse your point that we need to have long term, short term and immediate plans to mitigate the effects of earthquake. Not having concrete plans means we are having lots of problems. Main problem is actually not giving justifiable priority to earthquake issues at various levels. Like other many disasters, earthquake considerations should be integral part of development approaches which we are missing, knowingly or unknowingly. We still lack well set institutional mechanisms and proper policy instruments in place. After endorsing National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management in 2009, Government of Nepal is now about to bring out the Disaster Management Act in the near future and then perhaps we will have more structured plans and activities to improving the disaster safety in Nepal.
5. It is generally believed that the houses and big structures are built flouting the earthquake resistant rules? As an earthquake expert, what are you suggestions to address this issue?
Yes, there has been a general tendency that people neglect issues of earthquake safety while constructing buildings. This is because of lack of awareness in one hand, and on the other hand, most of the municipalities do not have a system of checking safety provisions while issuing the building permits. Only few municipalities initiated the mandatory implementation of building codes. I think to avert the situation, we have to have three strategies: a) Raise awareness of the people of earthquake safety issues so that people themselves demand safe construction; b) Enhance knowledge and skills of masons so that they can construct buildings in proper manner (almost 90% of the buildings in Nepal are constructed by the masons, head masons or the petty contractors); and c) devise a system of mandatory implementation of building code in all urban and urbanizing areas of the country so that engineers are made liable to the design and construction of the buildings.
6. The haphazard urbanization and a lack of land use plan creating problems in making the city safe from earthquakes? What is N-SET is doing to make Kathmandu Valley and other parts safe from the ill effects of tremors?
Our strategies for achieving ‘earthquake safe communities in Nepal are:
Public Awareness: Each and every individual should be made aware on earthquake safety. By awareness raising myths and fallacies can be eradicated, fatalism can be reduced and community can be convinced of impending seismic risk and way out to mitigate it. NSET has developed innovative ideas to aware people from all walks of life – policy and decision makers, politicians, media, international agencies etc. And of course, the objectives of awareness raising are different for the different target groups: for politicians and senior officials, it is to convince them of the necessity to look at disaster risk reduction as a development issue, for the general public it is enabling them to understand the risk and to identify possible measures that could reduce the vulnerability on an incremental basis.
Capacity Building/Training: In addition to public awareness we stride to make community safer by imparting knowledge skills required for reducing the risk. IT is through training of masons and technical professionals on earthquake safer construction, it is through training of local volunteers on community level preparedness and so on.
Our focus is on the internalization of the knowledge and ultimately its ownership and use, as much as possible, in day to day life. We strongly believe that each and every activity on earthquake preparedness should be institutionalized to achieve earthquake safe communities.
Institutionalization: Institutions be it municipalities, VDCs or departments and ministries should be made stronger and capable to implement DRR. Institutional capacities will ensure sustained efforts for DRR.
7. Is there any obstruction in carrying out the plans you and your institution have envisioned to lower the ill effects of earthquake in the nation? If yes, what are they?
As I have already mentioned there has been several good examples and successes in terms of demonstrating feasible earthquake risk reduction measures. However, such good examples and successes need up-scaling and institutionalization so that the entire country and the communities can be made safer. One of the biggest challenges lying ahead is to make earthquake risk reduction a national priority and reflected in policy and institutional mechanisms.
8. Since an earthquake is a cyclic event and considering this fact, an earthquake is long due in Nepal. In such a precarious situation, is the rapid response to an earthquake in place now?
We do have some systems for emergency response. Ministry of Home Affairs is responsible to provide such emergency response. In minor to moderate event of incidents like frequent floods, landslides, and snow avalanches, the system is somehow capable to cope with the situation. However, recent experiences have shown that current system and legal mechanism are not well enough to cope to major disaster such as that the expected earthquake devastation in Kathmandu Valley.
9. No doubt, the role of government agencies is important in making policies and taking actions to ward off any eventuality from an earthquake. Do you think that the government bodies are doing needful in this regard?
The perception about risk in decision-making level is still not enough. This is what makes people more vulnerable. Everybody should do disaster preparedness. It is not only earthquake but also other disasters like avalanches, floods and landslides that have risks associated with human life and property. Ultimately what is required is a culture at all levels including at household and prime ministerial level about the risk and mitigation. We did have some household culture in the past. We did have indigenous level of culture on how to face the flood, landslides or earthquake. There is a necessity for forcefully bringing this practice into the mindset of the people and their behavior. For that what we require is a very strong policy commitment as well as legal instruments to support. What are missing in Nepal are such kinds of mechanisms - which could take into consideration the totality of disaster scenario.
Recently National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction has been approved which will serve as country’s guide for subsequent action planning and implementation for effective disaster risk management (DRM) in Nepal. NSDRM has envisioned highest level institution the National Commission for DRM (NCDRM) under the chairmanship of honorable Prime Minister responsible for endorsement of national policies on DRM and approving the national-level DRM plans and programs, guide and oversee management of fund generation and mobilization and provide policy guidance for bilateral, sub-regional, regional and international cooperation in the area of DRM.
However to implement the strategy the pertinent act is required which has been drafted but not yet approved by the parliament. Unless the act is enacted the formation of the council is not possible. So we hope it will come out very soon.
http://www.gorkhapatra.org.np/rising.detail.php?article_id=50850&cat_id=29
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment