Who's the next prime minister?

KATHMANDU, July 2: After Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned from his post, the formation of even a majority government appears complicated, let alone formation of a consensus government.

Republica assesses the possibility/impossibility of each of the six possible candidates becoming the next prime minister. Based on our analysis, UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal appears to be the frontrunner for the post. But Nepal´s politics is so uncertain and so volatile, not to mention the ever changing positions of individual leaders, it´s only wise to refrain from making any predictions about the next prime minister.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal

Dahal, as the chairman of the largest party in the Constituent Assembly, is still the most legitimate candidate to lead the next government, provided there is agreement among the political parties on all contentious issues and on forming a national consensus government. Maoist leader Barsaman Pun, who switched his loyalty from Baburam Bhattarai to Dahal, told Republica that the Maoist party would forge a theoretical understanding on the issues related to the peace process and that would pave the way for a Dahal-led national government.

But NC and UML leaders rule out any compromise on issues related to the peace process. Without progress over these issues, Dahal is unlikely to get any support from the NC, UML or the Madesh-based parties even to form a majority government. So rule out Dahal for the time being.

Dr Baburam Bhattarai

Maoist Vice Chairman Dr Baburam Bhattarai could be a more acceptable figure for the NC, UML and Madhes-based parties, but not if there is no progress in the peace process. "Whether Dahal or Bhattarai, they must demonstrate real progress on the issues in the peace progress; otherwise we cannot support them any longer on face value," said one NC leader.

Dr Bhattarai, however, commands good support from the Madhes-based parties and if all the Madhesi parties unite behind him, he can lead a majority-based alliance of the UCPN-Maoist and Madhesi parties. But not unless his party decides to form the next government under his leadership, something that seems less and less likely as some of his supporters are again teaming up with Maoist Chairman Dahal.

Ram Chandra Poudel

Nepali Congress (NC) Vice-president Ram Chandra Poudel, who is also Parliamentary Party leader of the party, has a higher possibility of getting the prime ministerial post should the NC get to head the new government. Poudel is a strong contender within the party to lead a new government not only because he has the support of party Acting President Sushil Koirala but also because he commands the support of a majority of NC lawmakers by virtue of being NC Parliamentary Party leader. He defeated his rival Sher Bahadur Deuba, garnering 61 votes against Deuba´s 43, in the Parliamentary Party election.

Much to Deuba’s disadvantage, the power equation in the NC Parliamentary Party remains intact still. Add to this a nearly two-thirds majority of NC CWC members who had thrown their weight behind Poudel during a CWC meeting held recently to name a new prime ministerial candidate.

However, Poudel can become prime minister only if the present coalition or the Maoist party supports his candidacy, the chances of which are very slim. The UCPN-Maoist is sure to oppose him and it´s also less likely that the UML central committee will take a decision to back him, especially in a scenario in which the UCPN-Maoist throws a carrot to UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal.

If the Maoists decide to remain in opposition and neither support or oppose a new government, Poudel has a greater chance of becoming prime minister from among the parties in the existing ruling coalition

Sher Bahadur Deuba

Though NC senior leader Sher Bahadur Deuba has projected himself as a prime ministerial candidate and has to that end even lobbied the other parties, especially the Madhes-based ones, to garner their support, it is simply impossible to get his name endorsed as prime ministerial candidate from his own party. He is in a minority both in the party’s CWC and Parliamentary Party, as compared to Poudel, apparently due to an unofficial alliance between Poudel and Acting President Koirala.

Though Deuba has claimed that he has greater international clout and may also be in a better position to garner the support of other parties, that is less likely to change the internal dynamics of the NC in his favor. So he doesn´t stand much chance of becoming prime minister for a fourth time.

Jhala Nath Khanal

As the chairman of the third largest party one of whose leaders is an outgoing prime minister, one would think that he has the least chance of becoming the next prime minister. But the irony is, as things stand now, he has a more realistic chance of getting to Baluwatar than any other leader across the parties.

If the Maoists don´t get the leadership of the next government, it would be in their best interests to try to break the ruling alliance. Failure to do so would mean continuation of that alliance and gradual weakening of the Maoist party.

The Maoists will also benefit in another way from breaking the ruling alliance: It will not just break that alliance but also deepen intra-party conflict in the UML, their communist brethren with whom they share the left constituency.

Khanal himself realizes this possibility very well. UML leaders close to Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal claim that it is this very possibility that made Khanal uncooperative toward a government headed by a leader of his own party. For about the last two months, some leaders loyal to Khanal have been arguing in political parleys that he can be a suitable candidate since the NC will not accept a prime minister from the Maoist party and vice versa. One UML politburo member close to Khanal even claimed that there was no possibility of any leader other than Khanal becoming the next prime
minister.

Agreed that Nepal and the KP Oli faction in the UML don´t want Khanal to become prime minister, but they can´t stand in his way if the Maoists decide to support him. "We know that the Maoist party can make this strategic move and support Khanal’s candidacy, and we will not be in a position to oppose it," Nepal´s aides confide.

But again it all depends upon whether Maoist Chairman Dahal is able to sell the idea of a Khanal-led government in his own party, and the possibly become a part of it. The faction led by Bhattarai will surely oppose such a move and advocate a government led by the Maoist party itself.

And there is also a school of thought that says Dahal can take his revenge against Khanal at the eleventh hour for the latter´s betrayal over the army chief row that forced Dahal to quit the government.

Source: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=20560