How will politics unfold?

KATHMANDU, July 21: The prime minister´s election is taking place tomorrow. But it´s very unlikely that we will get a new prime minister in the first round of voting. How long it will take before there is a second round vote and who will become the next PM is still uncertain.

Below is Republica´s briefing on how events are likely to unfold, starting tomorrow.

1. As Chairman of UCPN-M Pushpa Kamal Dahal filed his candidacy for prime minister first at parliament today, voting will first take place on Dr Baburam Bhattarai´s proposal to elect Dahal as prime minister. Bhattarai is unlikely to withdraw his proposal since that could leave only NC candidate Ram Chandra Poudel in the fray as the UML is likely to withdraw the candidacy of its party Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal (explained in detail later). In the voting, Dahal´s candidacy is likely to be defeated. The only possibility of Dahal´s election is if either the Madhesi parties, mainly the two MPRF factions, vote for him or the UML, in a dramatic turn of events, splits and about 50 of its lawmakers vote for Dahal. Both these scenarios remain only theoretical possibilities so far.

2. After Dahal´s candidacy is defeated, voting will take place on the candidacy of NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel as he was the second to file his nomination. His candidacy is almost sure to be defeated tomorrow as even the Madhesi parties are unlikely to vote for him, at least in the first round. Since the support of Madhesi parties alone will not give Poudel the numbers to get elected the Madhesi parties are unlikely to vote for him as it will only weaken their bargain with the NC for plum ministries and number of ministries before the second round of voting.

3. After the first two candidacies are shot down it will be the turn of UML Chairman Khanal. As per the written agreement reached at the party´s central committee today, Khanal will remain a candidate till voting time only if there is written support for him from 401 lawmakers, a slim possibility. If there is no support from 401 lawmakers -- two-thirds of the membership of parliament-- the agreement is that Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who today proposed Khanal´s candidacy, will officially withdraw the proposal.

What happened at the UML central committee meeting today provides a window on the power struggle within the UML and how it is likely to shape the political course ahead. The UML chairman proposed at the central committee that the party should announce his candidacy for the prime minister´s post. UML senior leader KP Sharma Oli came up with a counter proposal that the party chairman should not lead a majority government following the failure of the majority government led by party senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal. The Nepal-Oli faction challenged the Khanal camp to put both proposals to a vote if Khanal does not withdraw his proposal. The Khanal camp was reluctant to go for a vote as 47 out of the 86 members in the UML central committee who have the right to vote were against Khanal´s proposal. In the end UML leader Pradeep Nepal suggested a compromise formula-- that the party file Khanal´s candidacy but withdraw it if there is no written support from 401 lawmakers. It was accepted. The Nepal-Oli camp suspected that Khanal may not withdraw his candidacy once it was filed even if there was no support from two-thirds of parliament. So the Nepal-Oli camp decided that Prime Minister Nepal would propose Khanal´s candidacy. According to parliamentary regulations, the person who proposes a candidacy can withdraw it just before voting starts if he so wishes. Under this arrangement Nepal can and will withdraw Khanal´s candidacy unless there is support from 401 members of parliament, even if the Maoists decide to vote in his favor and Khanal wants to stay put.

4. So, after the first round of voting Khanal would no longer remain a candidate, making it a two-way race between Maoist Chairman Dahal and NC leader Poudel. Electing the prime minister from among these two won´t be easy either, and may take several weeks, if not months of wrangling and bickering among and within the parties.

5. Once Khanal is out of the race he will be in no hurry to begin the second round of voting. And the Nepali Congress has elections at the village, district and regional levels on July 25, July 31 and August 2 respectively to elect representatives for its upcoming general convention slated for August. Since its leaders and lawmakers will be busy in the party elections they will not be able to take part in voting in parliament during those times. So unless the second round of voting takes place by the end of this week, which is very unlikely, the NC will propose postponing the prime minister´s election at least for another two weeks.

6. Second round voting will take time also because the UML will continue to remain divided, and in all probability the division will only deepen after the first round of voting. The party will have to hold another central committee meeting to take a fresh decision. "If no one is elected from the parliamentary meeting on Wednesday, the UML will hold a CC meeting and take a fresh decision," said UML Spokesperson Pradeep Gyawali. Given a choice between Dahal and Poudel, the Nepal-Oli faction will press for supporting Poudel. But the Khanal camp is unlikely to buy that easily. "Since the party has decided to withdraw the candidacy of its chairman unless two-thirds of the lawmakers support him, how can we vote for Poudel to lead a majority government?" argued a leader belonging to the Khanal camp. Though it will be difficult for the Khanal camp to argue in support of Dahal´s candidacy it is unlikely to easily support Poudel and may draw the process out.

7. Once the election enters the second round Maoist Chairman Dahal will have to make a tough choice. He will either have to be ready to face the dreadful prospect, at least from the Maoist point of view, of having a NC president and a NC prime minister at the helm of affairs and the expiry of the CA after ten months without having written the constitution and without completing the peace process, or he will have to make compromises to avoid such a scenario. It´s possible that, after the first round voting, Dahal will come up with a new proposal, backed by UML´s Khanal camp -- that he is ready to reach an agreement with the NC and UML on the six-point agenda to complete the peace process and constitution writing provided they agree to form a consensus government under his leadership. If Dahal is ready to strike a deal on the NC and UML´s proposal for PLA integration/rehabilitation and other issues of the peace process, the NC will also face a tough choice: Whether to give up its claim to government leadership or strike a deal on the peace process. "Many NC leaders will be in favor of concluding the peace process and writing the constitution," said a senior NC leader but argues that he doesn´t believe Dahal will be able to make such compromises. But he is at least likely to give it a try and the negotiations may take several weeks before a second round of voting takes place.

Source: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=21271