Waiting for new PM?

KATHMANDU, July 17: If you are among those complaining that even five days before the election for the prime minister´s post it´s still uncertain who will be the new man, consider this: You may not know even on election day, July 21.

Sounds puzzling? The logic is pretty straightforward-- the parties are still undecided who they should ally with to form a new government, so each of the major parties may go to the election with their own candidate, ensuring that there is no clear winner in a first round vote.

"I´m almost certain the PM´s election will go to the second round," said a senior NC leader. According to parliamentary regulations, in case there is no clear winner in the first round there should be a second round vote, but the parties cannot change their candidates, nor can a new candidate enter the fray.

Uncertainty about the future prime minister emanates primarily from growing strains within the ruling coalition. The Nepali Congress has officially staked claim to government leadership and said the ruling alliance should remain intact. But UML, the second major party in the collation, is divided over lending support to the NC.

Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and KP Sharma Oli are sympathetic toward the NC. But UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal is not, for he sees a real chance for himself. The Khanal camp´s calculation is simple: If we stay put, the Maoists will eventually vote for us since breaking this alliance is in their interest.

The UML is, therefore, the weak link in the ruling alliance. But the dynamics within the UML is so complicated that it will not be easy for the party to take a decision regarding the future prime minister.

Chairman Khanal will not take a proposal to the Central Committee to support the NC, at least in the first round, and the Nepal-Oli faction will try to block any decision to form a government in alliance with or with support from the Maoists.

"The Central committee will certainly block any proposal in that direction but I’m not sure what will happen at the Standing Committee," said a senior UML leader of the Nepal-Oli faction.

The 11-member UML Standing Committee is vertically split on the issue. Vice-chairmen Bamdev Gautam and Ashok Rai, General Secretary Ishwar Pokharel and Secretary Yuvraj Gyawali are with the party chairman, while Prime Minister Nepal, Oli, Vice-chair Bidya Bhandari and Secretaries Bishnu Poudel and Shankar Pokharel will stand against him.

In such a scenario, the vote of Bharat Mohan Adhikari, believed to be a neutral, will be decisive since Amrit Bohara, who is ex-officio member, does not have a vote.

However, some UML leaders believe that Ishwar Pokharel might be unpredictable as well. "Though he is close to Khanal, he might favor a NC-led government in which he sees a real chance of himself becoming a deputy prime minister and bagging a powerful ministry," leaders argue.

The third front in the ruling coalition is a newly-formed alliance of Madhesi parties. This front is against a coalition with the Maoists led by UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal. But they seem ready to support a coalition led by Maoist Vice-chairman Dr Baburam Bhattarai.

Some of these Madhesi leaders have already met Bhattarai and said they would support him should he stake a claim for the premiership.

But Maoist party insiders rule out Dahal proposing Bhattarai as the next PM. They say that as for Dahal filing candidacy himself he will do so only if he is certain to secure 301 votes in parliament, which seems less and less likely. If he is uncertain of success, he might push Narayan Kaji Shrestha as the party´s candidate.

"Proposing Bhattarai would be too risky for him since he could actually win the race through a new alignment among the parties," said a Maoist leader.

Though there is also talk of a Madhesi front proposing TMDP Chairman Mahantha Thakur as its own candidate, many argue that even if they do so it will be just to bargain for plump ministries in the new government.

What then is the conclusion of all this? It´s too early for the parties to choose alliances for the PM´s election and they are unlikely to do so until the voting goes to a second round where they will be hard pressed to take decisions.

Source: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=21117