KATHMANDU, Aug 6: The fourth round of voting slated for Friday will also fail to elect a new prime minister unless a miracle happens at the last minute.
* Why did Shyam Saran come to Nepal? *
CPN-UML, which holds the key to government formation, remains committed to the decision of its last central committee meeting to remain neutral in the voting, and another player that could break the current impasse – the loose alliance of Madhesi parties – is also likely to remain neutral in the two-way battle between the Nepali Congress and the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M).
After much counseling and some arm-twisting by Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh´s special envoy, Shyam Saran, it now appears that most of the Madhesi lawmakers who crossed the floor in parliament against their party´s decision during the third round of voting and cast their votes in favor of Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, are unlikely to do so again on Friday.
The result: The country will not get a new prime minister on Friday either, after fourth rounds of voting and five weeks after outgoing Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned.
What will happen next?
A fifth round of voting is unlikely to take place very soon – it will at least not happen as quickly as the last three rounds of voting. As the NC will be busy in internal preparations for the party´s general convention, the parties have already reached a tentative agreement to defer a fifth round of voting, should that be necessary, until August 18 at the earliest.
After the fourth round vote, real negotiations between the parties are likely to be intensified. And the focus will be on Maoist Chairman Dahal and UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal.
Either Dahal will have to be ready to take other parties into confidence and strike a deal with them on issues related to completion of the peace process and writing of the constitution and then form a government under Maoist leadership or face the ignominy of being once again sidelined by the current ruling coalition.
Pressure will also mount on UML Chairman Khanal to give up his party´s current adherence to a policy of neutrality. Khanal personally prefers a rotation system, wherein the four major political players -- Maoists, NC, UML and Madhesi front -- share the position of prime minister on a rotational basis. Unless he can persuade other parties to agree to such a power-sharing arrangement, he will eventually be forced to change his party´s current stance and go for electing a prime minister from within a ruling coalition.
Source: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=21910
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